The ground campaign.

[rivka]

There's an interesting post up at fivethirtyeight.com, my new favorite blog. They've been traveling around the midwest visiting campaign field offices, and have made some startling observations:

Let’s be clear. We've observed no comparison between these ground campaigns. To begin with, there’s a 4-1 ratio of offices in most states. We walk into McCain offices to find them closed, empty, one person, two people, sometimes three people making calls. Many times one person is calling while the other small clutch of volunteers are chatting amongst themselves. In one state, McCain’s state field director sat in one of these offices and, sotto voce, complained to us that only one man was making calls while the others were talking to each other about how much they didn't like Obama, which was true. But the field director made no effort to change this. This was the state field director. [...]

Given a choice between taking embarrassing photos of empty phone banks, we give McCain’s people the chance to pose for photos to show us the action for what they continually claim we “just missed.” No more. We stop into offices at all open hours of the day, but generally more in the afternoon and evening. “Call time,” for both campaigns, is all day, but the time when folks over 65 are generally targeted begins in late afternoon and goes til 8 or 9pm. Universally, McCain’s people stop earlier. Even when we show up at 6:15pm, we’re told we just missed the big phone bank, or to come back in 30 minutes. If we show up an hour later, we “just missed it” again.

The McCain offices are also calm, sedate. Little movement. No hustle. In the Obama offices, it's a whirlwind. People move. It's a dynamic bustle. You can feel it in our photos.

Up to this point, we’ve been giving McCain's ground campaign a lot of benefit of the doubt. We can’t stop convincing ourselves that there must – must – be a warehouse full of 1,000 McCain volunteers somewhere in a national, central location just dialing away. This can’t be all they’re doing. [...]

You could take every McCain volunteer we’ve seen doing actual work in the entire trip, over six states, and it would add up to the same as Obama’s single Thornton, CO office. Or his single Durango, CO office. These ground campaigns bear no relationship to each other.

Differences in ground campaigns probably don't show up in the polls. What ground campaigns do is get supporters who might not otherwise have voted to come out on Election Day. They change unlikely voters into likely voters. They may change some minds as well, but the primary purpose of a ground campaign is to get out the vote.

When we were in Charlottesville for our Wild Woman Weekend, we went by the Obama campaign office a couple of times. That place was hopping. It was a large, deep storefront, absolutely packed with people - even at 10 o'clock at night. And it looked like a place where people did stuff, not just a showroom. I didn't see the McCain office, though, so I can't compare.

Has anyone had contact with the McCain ground campaign? Any data points out there? I'm curious to know whether the fivethirtyeight.com guys' observations are accurate. ...Why would they be? How could there not be a ground campaign? And yet.

Comments

[wcg.livejournal.com]

There's a GOP storefront office out here in Pasadena. It's mostly part of the local state assemblyman's organization, but it does pass out McCain/Palin signs and bumper stickers. Most of the time when I go past it there seem to be a couple of people in there. I'll try to remember to check tomorrow and get a sense of how busy they are.

My guess is that the McCain campaign isn't putting any effort into Maryland. If they're not willing to campaign in Michigan, they're sure not going to campaign here.

[rivka.livejournal.com]

My guess is that the McCain campaign isn't putting any effort into Maryland. If they're not willing to campaign in Michigan, they're sure not going to campaign here.

Yeah, no kidding. Maryland is not going to be relevant in this election, so it's a good thing we got to cast exciting primary votes.

The first thing I noticed about the Charlottesville Obama office was that they had tons of yard signs, bumper stickers, and buttons available for the taking. None of those things are easy to come by in Maryland, to the extent that Martin O'Malley has apparently complained. Why waste campaign resources on us?

[chargirlgenius.livejournal.com]

None of those things are easy to come by in Maryland, to the extent that Martin O'Malley has apparently complained. Why waste campaign resources on us?

Aaaah... That hopefully explains the abundance of McCain/Palin and Dearth of obvious Obama support.

[mjlayman.livejournal.com]

But they're doing the same for Virginia. In NoVA, we have one McCain office and five Obama offices. We're one of the "swing" states so you'd think McCain would advertise more up here.

[txanne.livejournal.com]

Argh, I feel so horribly guilty for not canvassing. But I end every day feeling like a damp dishrag. :-( And I totally forgot about the quarter ending, so I didn't get my money in on time. But hey, at least I'm registered to vote!

[mjlayman.livejournal.com]

I got called to canvass yesterday, but as always, I explained that my neighbors all have steps and I can't go up and down those. This time, though, the caller asked if I needed help to get to the polls, which was nice. I don't, but it's still nice.

[kateyule.livejournal.com]

The paranoid answer: they don't need a ground campaign if they're counting on voting-machine results, rather than votes, to carry the day.

[minnehaha.livejournal.com]

What you just posted seems to be going on all over the country. This is an aspect of the race not figured into the polls.

B

[rivka.livejournal.com]

That's so bizarre. Why wouldn't McCain have a ground campaign?

[minnehaha.livejournal.com]

The general answer is the the right has traditionally relied on Conservative institutions -- churches and the like -- while the left has had to scrabble for the less organized voters.

The more specific answer is Obama benefited from a long primary cycle, and has more money to keep those primary offices open.

Silver talks about the mismatch here.

B

[papersky.livejournal.com]

What kateyule said is what went through my mind. Why bother to argue if you can just buy the judge?

[kcobweb.livejournal.com]

Oh gods, I just loooooove fivethirtyeight.com. It's my favorite too and I check it obsessively. If I have an extra five minutes, I scroll down and get lost in teh data. Love it.

[minnehaha.livejournal.com]

I have had contact with a McCain volunteer In Minnesota, who says they're doing push polling. That's all I know.

K.

my new favourite too

[(Anonymous)]

fivethirtyeight is great isn't it? You have no idea how many people all round the world are following your election with obsessive interest -- everyone I know is reading US political commentary with bated breath. Our national broadcaster carried the VP debate live and the Australian papers are full of coverage of every twist and turn, though nothing as meaty as Obsidian Wings and fivethirtyeight. Vote wisely, USAians. The World is Watching...

Emma