I am afraid.

[rivka]

I've had a creeping sense of unease about Obama's rise in the polls. He's currently leading by 6 or 7 points nationwide, but he's got a stronger lead in multiple key battleground states like Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia - so much so that my favorite polling analyst Nate Silver puts his odds of winning close to 94%. (And Nate Silver is the guy who predicted last spring that the Devil Rays would go to the postseason, so whatever your concerns might be about his partisanship, you have to concede that he understands statistical projections.) Even the conservative polling-analysis site Real Clear Politics concedes that they expect Obama to win even if he loses every single state that is currently considered a tossup.

Where does my creeping dread come from? Partly, I confess, it's because I've been following politics long enough that I never understimate the power of the Democratic Party to screw things up. But I'm also concerned about what seems like the lack of any effective campaign strategy on the McCain side. It confuses me. Whatever else I might think about the Republican Party, I have never for a moment doubted their political effectiveness. They're good at winning. I may decry their campaign techniques (may, hell), but I have to concede that they are very, very successful campaigners.

So what's going on with their apparent lack of a ground campaign? Why is McCain lurching around on the economy, putting out weird proposals and then withdrawing them? George Will pretty much sums it up for me - and I'm quite certain that will be the first and last time you ever hear me say that:

Time was, the Baltimore Orioles manager was Earl Weaver, a short, irascible, Napoleonic figure who, when cranky, as he frequently was, would shout at an umpire, "Are you going to get any better or is this it?" With, mercifully, only one debate to go, that is the question about John McCain's campaign.

What freaks me out is the fear that this is not it. That what we're seeing direct from the campaign is not what they think will make them win. That they are playing a sub rosa game directed at the absolute darkest strains of American politics.

What freaks me out is seeing people start to couple Barack Obama's name with Yitzhak Rabin's.

Do I sound like a nutbar conspiracy theorist? I probably do. But consider:

• Fox News presented a documentary about Obama in which the assertion was made, and left uncontested, that Obama was essentially a member of a domestic terrorism sleeper cell "in training for a radical overthrow of the government." The expert commentator who made these unopposed claims is on record as being a paranoid, delusional anti-Semite who is "one of the most notorious litigants in the history of the United States" and who has called for a Constitutional amendment to seize and redistribute all property owned by Jews. Yet he was presented as a credible expert on Obama's background and intentions, on a mainstream news network.



• The official state chair of the Virginia GOP instructed volunteers to link Obama directly to terrorism, according to Time magazine:

  With so much at stake, and time running short, Frederick did not feel he had the luxury of subtlety. He climbed atop a folding chair to give 30 campaign volunteers who were about to go canvassing door to door their talking points — for instance, the connection between Barack Obama and Osama bin Laden: "Both have friends that bombed the Pentagon," he said. "That is scary."

  What is perhaps the most frightening thing about that story is that the Time magazine reporter wasn't undercover at the volunteer training. She was invited to attend by the McCain campaign. (More on this story.)



• McCain refused to disavow or distance himself from those instructions.



• The rhetoric at McCain-Palin rallies is increasingly violent. McCain has long since stopped his early policy of reprimanding supporters who emphatically call out Obama by his middle name. His single attempt to repudiate the worst excesses of his rally crowd was anemic. Frank Rich lays it all out in the New York Times:

  At McCain-Palin rallies, the raucous and insistent cries of “Treason!” and “Terrorist!” and “Kill him!” and “Off with his head!” as well as the uninhibited slinging of racial epithets, are actually something new in a campaign that has seen almost every conceivable twist. They are alarms. Doing nothing is not an option. [...]
  
  What makes them different, and what has pumped up the Weimar-like rage at McCain-Palin rallies, is the violent escalation in rhetoric, especially (though not exclusively) by Palin. Obama “launched his political career in the living room of a domestic terrorist.” He is “palling around with terrorists” (note the plural noun). Obama is “not a man who sees America the way you and I see America.” Wielding a wildly out-of-context Obama quote, Palin slurs him as an enemy of American troops.
  
  By the time McCain asks the crowd “Who is the real Barack Obama?” it’s no surprise that someone cries out “Terrorist!” The rhetorical conflation of Obama with terrorism is complete. It is stoked further by the repeated invocation of Obama’s middle name by surrogates introducing McCain and Palin at these rallies. This sleight of hand at once synchronizes with the poisonous Obama-is-a-Muslim e-mail blasts and shifts the brand of terrorism from Ayers’s Vietnam-era variety to the radical Islamic threats of today.
  
  That’s a far cry from simply accusing Obama of being a guilty-by-association radical leftist. Obama is being branded as a potential killer and an accessory to past attempts at murder. “Barack Obama’s friend tried to kill my family” was how a McCain press release last week packaged the remembrance of a Weather Underground incident from 1970 — when Obama was 8.

The Rich column connects the dots for anyone still reluctant to do so after examining the amassed evidence:

We all know what punishment fits the crime of murder, or even potential murder, if the security of post-9/11 America is at stake. We all know how self-appointed “patriotic” martyrs always justify taking the law into their own hands. [...] We’re not at Election Day yet, and if voters are to have their final say, both America and Obama have to get there safely. The McCain campaign has crossed the line between tough negative campaigning and inciting vigilantism, and each day the mob howls louder.

I am afraid. I would love to have someone explain to me, convincingly, why I shouldn't be. But at the moment I'm not sure that anyone can.

Updated to add: I will be deleting any anonymous comment that is not signed. If you want to comment anonymously, please put your name at the bottom of your comment - preferably (although I don't require this) with a link to some established online presence.

Comments

[huladavid.livejournal.com]

Interesting... Especially since, while I was switching around the tv channels early Sunday morning, I ran across some lady preacher who was saying that she had predicted that there would be something related to security that'd show who should be elected president.

She also said that the outgoing PM of Isreal had gotten kicked out since he'd signed a treaty that'd help form a Palestinian state, and that this was a bad thing since the Bible doesn't say anything about Palestine as a county.

To which I thought, "Yeah, but it doesn't say anything about England, the Apollo 11 astronauts, nor the United States."

[jinian.livejournal.com]

I've been afraid in just this way for basically the entire time, though they do seem to be making the exact tactics more and more clear.

[ailsaek.livejournal.com]

I'm not even going to try, cos I agree with your analysis. I hope he makes it to the election and beyond, but I'm not certain of it.

[ailbhe]

I'm just hoping that the sensible outnumber the frighteningly crazy. I do think there's a fairly strong possibility he'll be assassinated.

I think it's probable that if the ballot itself is fair, he will be elected, but after what was pulled in Florida even that much seems unlikely.

Is Hate Speech a crime in the US? Incitement to racial violence? Does the recent thing by John McCain where he said "No ma'am he's not an Arab" make any difference?

[kcobweb.livejournal.com]

I do think there's a fairly strong possibility he'll be assassinated.

That's my worry.

On the other hand - I usually see this kind of stuff pop up on the internets, and wonder why it isn't in the MSM. I saw an article about the FOX documentary in my small-town paper today - complete with assertions that the main guy is a delusional crazy anti-Semitic nutjob. Yeah, I'm in Massachusetts, and our paper is pretty left-leaning, generally speaking. But some of the MSM *are* talking about a few of these things, and that's comforting to me. Maybe a few more people will see it this way.

[wild-irises.livejournal.com]

There has always been a strong possibility that he will be assassinated. McCain may be fueling it, but he's not creating it.

I agree with rivka's analysis in part, but only in part. An Obama assassination before the election, as unbelievably horrible as it would be, would ensure a Biden victory, which isn't what they want. I think they are lost in the fog and trying to play all sides against the middle. This could very easily result in Barack Obama's death by violence, and that would be unforgivable. But I don't think it's their plan.

[rivka.livejournal.com]

I think it's probable that if the ballot itself is fair, he will be elected, but after what was pulled in Florida even that much seems unlikely.

I am less concerned about this than many. Vote suppression only works in a close race; at present, there are enough states where Obama has a large lead to bring him to the 270 electoral votes needed to win.

Also, I read something very encouraging today - unfortunately, I forget where - in which an Obama staffer explained that they have big teams of people trained to handle voting problems in places where they might arise - Virginia, for example, and Ohio, which had massive voting problems in 2004. It's part of their ground game. If problems with voter suppression or inaccurate information or polls being run improperly come up, Obama will have people at the local level who are trained to respond, many of them lawyers. So the news doesn't have to work its way up to the national level and be dealt with by the national campaign. That should help a lot.

Is Hate Speech a crime in the US? Incitement to racial violence?

Hate speech, no. Incitement to violence? There really has to be a smoking gun. We take our right to freedom of speech very seriously, for anything short of shouting "fire" in a crowded theater.

Does the recent thing by John McCain where he said "No ma'am he's not an Arab" make any difference?

In my opinion, it was too little, too late.

[papersky.livejournal.com]

There's also this guy, and I'm sure he isn't the only one.

I try to feel as positive as possible, but I have also been putting these things together the way you have.

[nex0s.livejournal.com]

Of course assasination is a risk. And you know that Obama, and his family, are aware of that. In fact, there has been at least one actual attempt (stopped) and another that was such a freaky accident that some think it was an assasination attempt.

This is where I apply my not often exercised faith. I have faith that he will be protected, that his bodyguards (and the Secret Service) will do their jobs faithfully and well, and that hate will not overrule this country. I believe it, and I believe in Obama's bravery. I will not give into these sorts of fears.

The only thing that has shocked me about all this racist bullshit, is that people have been shocked by it.

N.

[ailbhe]

From over here, it's pretty shocking. Not wholly surprising, but shocking.

But you often find UKians who are shocked that even *children* have to pay for medical care in Ireland and the US, although they have known it for ages.

[rivka.livejournal.com]

I have always, from the beginning, been afraid that he would be assassinated. There are a lot of crazy racist whackos out there.

What I did not anticipate is efforts, at the level of mainstream national discourse - speeches by major public figures, network news broadcasts - to practically pre-legitimize assassination. That freaks me the fuck out.

[ailbhe]

I've been hearing about effigies hanged from trees - has McCain been speaking out against these, publicly, on national television? Because I haven't heard that he has. From here, which is not culturally similar and I know it, that's a huge omission. Over here, he'd be expected to condemn it loudly and repeatedly, as representing one of the two main parties (obviously the BNP wouldn't but they are not a main party).

[minnehaha.livejournal.com]

It is terrifying, and demonstrates what a soulless hull the Republican party has become.

B

[cantkeepsilent.livejournal.com]

Whatever else I might think about the Republican Party, I have never for a moment doubted their political effectiveness. They're good at winning. I may decry their campaign techniques (may, hell), but I have to concede that they are very, very successful campaigners.

I would analyze this belief. Since Watergate, it seems to me that the GOP are political sharpshooters when there is a George Bush on the ticket, but nearly comically inept otherwise. John McCain has fallen into the same pit Bob Dole did in 1996: changing his character to fit into the mold of "acceptable" Republican candidates and thereby coming across as inauthentic and mean-spirited, and then having an erratic campaign as he attempts to get momentum in any direction at all. And I think that the result will be nearly identical to 1996 -- 375 electoral college votes for the Democrat. Sure, Diebold might try to steal a couple of states, but I seriously doubt that there are enough.

The only nutbar theory that I give some amount of credence to is that the conservatives are sitting this election out because they want to watch a Democratic President and Congress enact the painful and unpopular solutions to all of the problems that have been brewing over the past eight years. They might retake both houses of Congress in 2010 after President Obama spends two years with the Kobayashi Maru.

[rms10.livejournal.com]

The note about Bob Dole's campaign is bizarrely reassuring.

I do agree that the conservatives are looking forward to losing this election, so they can blame Obama and the Democrats for not cleaning up Iraq and the economy quickly enough. But the Republican Party might not be able to get enough money by 2010 to mount a real 1994-style comeback, and I (insanely optimistically) think that by 2012 this country could be in okay shape again. Or we'll be in the midst of another Depression and a barter-based economy.

[lauradi7.livejournal.com]

Just appreciating the Kobayashi Maru analogy.

[cantkeepsilent.livejournal.com]

^_^ I live under the futile hope that someday that term will work its way into the dictionary. I really don't know a synonym for a trial so hopeless that your best option is to lose in a way that demonstrates your character. Like "schadenfreude", it's a word that we'd use if it existed.

[ewein2412]

but this is a fear that is not going to go away, even if he does win the election. My feeling is that it needs to be downplayed as much as possible. The more people talk about it the more encouragement the loonies will get.

It is hard to want something THIS BADLY and have to brace yourself for ten thousand different routes to disappointment. But, but. Nothing to do but cling to hope for the time being.

[nex0s.livejournal.com]

You said it better than I did.

There's a huge risk for Obama - not just now, but for the whole of his administration - but I feel that there's a bit of giving solidity to the whackos by worrying about it too much.

Maybe that's just superstition talking on my part, but for me, the hope thing - it's a manifestation of something. I would rather give my energy to that, than to worrying about hate.

N.

[johnpalmer.livejournal.com]

I think that the problem with McCain is that everything he had planned to use to win has been taken from him.

Given the financial meltdown, he can't run on "Lower taxes and deregulation will make everything okay!" (though bitter lies about the CRA and Fannie/Freddie causing the meltdown are still being spread)

Given that everyone wants *out* of Iraq, he can't keep playing "Success of the surge!"

Given his 90% in-favor-of-Bush record, he's lost "maverick". (Don't tell Palin, or she might have to release an internal investigation proving that he is, indeed a maverick, and contrary claims are just lies pushed by Obama supporters.)

I think the reason he's swinging so poorly is that he just doesn't have anything. Everything he's tried to use to tag Obama just hasn't stuck.

I'll grant you, I'm nervous too... but Obama is beating him, and everything McCain does is looking more and more like obvious gamesmanship.

[bosssio.livejournal.com]

I agree. I think the nastiness is a clear sign of the desperation of those who know they are losing, and have convinced themselves that a loss to Obama means everything they hold dear will be destroyed. They are panicking. And panicking people make very unwise, and often nasty, vulgar and dangerous decisions.

I don't think these folks hate Obama because he is black or has an "Arabic" middle name. I think they hate him because they hate him, and are using any weapon they can find to get other people to hate him too.

And McCain and Palin are falling prey also to the panic. They are getting caught up in the fear and the fury - and to be honest, it is their only option at this point.

I believe strongly that McCain is a man of integrity who sometimes lets his passions overrule his intelligence and his character. And I think the McCain campaign is all heat at this point.

And Palin? "Hell hath no fury than a woman trying to hide the fact that she has nothing to say and may have actually hurt her cause"

[echosupernova.livejournal.com]

I don't think the nastiness of the campaign is new. The McCain campaign's architects are disciples of Karl Rove and other Bush cohorts, the same ones who riled up the conservative base to come out and vote in the 2004 election by making gay marriage a central issue in the campaign.

One can see that he intended at least a lot of his campaign to be about "character" issues from the beginning. From the beginning, he's either implied or given implicit consent to rumors that Obama is Muslim, grew up in Saudi Arabia (or some other country with a large Muslim population), or is backed by/is a terrorist. This has been in the campaign all along. Frankly, it saddens me that these tactics are still being used, and they are still being used because they've worked.

The miraculous thing is that our surge of voters will be larger than theirs, and people who have felt disenfranchised and disinterested in politics for YEARS, perhaps even their whole lives, are coming out to cast a vote for hope.

Hope that this country can rise above the lowest denominator.

[minnehaha.livejournal.com]

"I am afraid. I would love to have someone explain to me, convincingly, why I shouldn't be. But at the moment I'm not sure that anyone can."

There's reason to be afraid. It's not just our country's history of killing our young black leaders, it's the current level of violent rhetoric stoked by the GOP. Assassination is a very real risk.

On the other hand, the Secret Service is good at what they do. And it's actually hard for a lone nut (or even a group of them) to pull it off. So my advice is to think of this risk in the same way you're thinking about the election results: the math is on Obama's side.

B

[ororo.livejournal.com]

I wouldn't give any credence to anything Fox News has to say. Most thinking humans by now have realized they're practically the GOP's mouthpiece. Anyone who believes them is a lost cause in my book.

[rivka.livejournal.com]

I wouldn't give any credence to anything Fox News has to say.

Yeah, that's obviously the case. But I think there's a difference between biased commentary, spin, and selective presentation of news results, on the one hand, and the outright advocacy of the lunatic proposition that Barack Obama is a terrorist bent on overthrowing the government. It just seems qualitatively different. It would be like CNN running a report that asserted that the Bush Administration was responsible for the 9/11 attacks.

[journeywoman.livejournal.com]

I think that their rhetoric, while despicable, is not going to push anyone over the edge into an actual assassination attempt. Chances are that any would-be assassins hated Obama long before this desperate change of strategy.

Also, it's not working. The NY Times (I think--can't find the article right now) reports that favorability ratings have gone down for McCain/Palin since they went negative, with 60% saying that he's only focusing on this stuff because he's got nothing to say of substance. While integrity and decency may not get them to stop going down this road, reversing their decline in the polls might.

I think the campaign is actually poorly run. No surprises in store, just bad management. McCain has sold his soul to get the nomination, and he doesn't know who he is anymore. Not surprising that he doesn't know how to run his campaign, either.

[minnehaha.livejournal.com]

I don't think that McCain has no ground game. I think that he's running pretty much the same ground game that the campaigns have run in recent years, both of them. As I understand it, the McCain/GOP local organization is about the same size as it was for Bush or Kerry in 2004, at least here in MN.

The difference is NOT that McCain isn't running a campaign, it's that the Obama side has created an extraordinary cadre of volunteers independent of the local efforts. The Obama organization is so well funded and well-attended that I use it to counter the claim that he lacks experience in running large organizations.

The Obama campaign works with the state and local efforts, canvassing for Obama and all the downballot candidates (just as the state and local efforts canvass for Obama), but they really do have an independent organization. That's what McCain doesn't have. I can't fault him for that; I don't believe any presidential candidate has had such a thing ever before.

K.

[edschweppe.livejournal.com]

I think your fears are legitimate. I don't think, however, that any of the less-tightly-wrapped wingnuts will be able to pull off an assassination, simply because the Secret Service is still a highly professional organization. (And they've been working with Obama since the primaries, so they and he know each other well.)

[ursulahitler.livejournal.com]

Columbina linked to you, and this is a very thoughtful entry.

This election has been pretty terrifying in general. For the last eight years, the conservatives have just gotten evil. That's the only word for it. I'm not joking or using hyperbole, they have been actually evil. This election is like something out of a cheap movie, with actual good guys on one side (I do believe Obama is a good person, even if he occasionally makes some troubling compromises for the sake of getting elected) and actual evil guys on the other. I don't put anything past the conservatives. We already know they'll screw with the votes. But will they blow something up Nov. 1st, faking a terrorist attack to get McCain in? Will they have Obama killed? Will they declare martial law and postpone the election? I don't rule any of it out. I'm not even a conspiracy buff, I'm a MOR Democrat! How the hell did we come to this crazy place?

[anotheranon.livejournal.com]

You're not the only one out there who is afraid, and perhaps with good reason. There's already been one plot against Obama's life, more "aspirational than operational" but I find it troubling that this got almost no mainstream media play.

The only thing I am certain of is that the hate speech has long since gone out of control, and the effects on the Republican "base" is going to continue getting ugly :(

[marykaykare.livejournal.com]

I remember, with clarity and precision, the Kennedy assassination. The King assassination. The 2nd Kennedy assassination. I've been terrified for him since they started talking about the possibility of his running.

I don't believe McCain or the GOP are really trying to stir up hate to encourage or legitimize assassination. But he/they wanted desperately to win, and if that isn't possible, they'll set up the script to delegitimize an Obama presidency. And they don't much care if assassination's a side-effect.

As for McCain's puzzling campaign ineptitude -- well -- the GOP hates him almost as much as the Democrats do. I don't know if they'd *deliberately* sabotage him, but...

MKK